National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Urbana-Champaign

Silverlight VAST - Bringing Light to Your Data

VAST 2008 Challenge
Mini Challenge 2:  Migrant Boats (geo-temporal analysis)

Authors and Affiliations:

Lorne Leonard, National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Urbana-Champaign, leonard@ncsa.uiuc.edu [PRIMARY contact]

Loretta Auvil, National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Urbana-Champaign, lauvil@ncsa.uiuc.edu

Student team: NO

Tool(s):

A web application (Figure 1) developed by Lorne Leonard using Silverlight was developed for the sole purpose to answer this mini challenge. The web application is designed to provide the visual and call web services for performing the analytics. This application allows users to pan a map with geocoded points and filter results by year, record-type, persons and boat names.  In addition, I used ESRI's ArcGIS tool suite for image rectification and spatial analysis purposes such as density mapping.

 

GeoSpatial2.jpg

Figure 1: Migrant Boat Web Application developed with Silverlight.

 

Two Page Summary:   NO

 

ANSWERS:

Boat-1 Characterize the choice of landing sites and their evolution over the three years.

Detailed Answer:

In the year 2005, the choice of landings occurred at the shortest distance (white arrow in Figure 2) between the mainland of United States and the Isla Del Sueño. The year 2005 had a total of 46 successful landings and 106 interdictions. Thus, the success rate for 2005 is 30.2%. From the 46 successful landings, 24 or 52.2% landed in the area closest to the United States mainland (marked as Area 1A in Figure 2). The remaining landings divided into two more areas (left and right of the shortest distance axis) are as follows: Area 1B represents 15 or 32.6% landings of the total landings; Area 1C had 7 or 15.2% landings.

 

In the year 2006, landings were similar to 2005 locations (Area 1 in Figure 3), but increased north along the west side of the gulf coast of United States (Area 3 in Figure 3). However, the most dramatic difference is the far west location marked as Area 2 in Figure 3. In 2006, there were a total of 129 successful landings and 170 interdictions. Thus, the success rate for 2006 is 43.14% both an improvement in successes but an increase from 46 to 129 landings or a 280% increase. In 2006, 41 out of 129 landings (31.78%) occurred in Area 2 near the border of Mexico and United States. For Area 1 in Figure 3 (a similar area as Areas 1 in Figure 2) the total numbers remained similar from the year 2005 (46 total). The total for 2006 in Area 1 is 53 out of 129 landings, or 41.08%. In Area 3, there were 35 from 129 landings (27.13%).

 

In the year 2007 (Figure 4), the biggest difference between years 2005 and 2006 was the new landing area on the east coast of the United States.  However, Area 2 the far west-landing site now represents 56.39% of the landings. Compared to year 2006 there is an increase from 41 to 150 landings, an increase of 365.85%. Area 1 now only represents 9.7 % (26 of 266) of the total landings, and the number of landings has decreased from 53 in 2006 to 26 in 2007. Area 3 represents 20.67% (55 of 266) of the total landings, an increase of 157.14% from 35 landings in the year 2006. Area 4, the new landings happening on the east coast, represents 13.15% (35 of 266) of the year 2007 landings. Thus, for the year 2007, there was 266 landings and 200 interdictions, thus for the first time there was more successful landings than interdictions. From the total boat records, the success rate is 57.08% landings and there has been an increase from 129 to 266 landings an increase of 206.20%.

 

Tables 1 to 3 summarize the number of boat landings, death and passenger rates per trip for years 2005 to 2007. Table 4 summarizes the number of landings per defined area for years 2005 to 2007.

 

Over the three years, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of passengers. 2005, 578 people landed, 2006, the numbers increased 350% to 1750. 2007 the number of people landed increased by 220% totaling 3884 passengers.

 

The rustic boat type is the most common form of transportation over the three years (287 of 441-65%), followed by raft (88 of 441-20%) and go-fast (66 of 441-15%). Rustic boats took 4141 out of 6212 passengers that landed over the three years (66.66%), raft boats took 431 people (6.94%) and go-fast took 1640 people (26.40%).

 

Table 1: Year 2005 Boat Landing

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

7

146

30

20.85

4.28

Raft

9

41

0

4.55

0

Rustic

30

391

50

13.03

1.67

Total

46

578

80

12.56

1.74

 

Table 2: Year 2006 Boat Landing

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

19

499

46

26.26

2.42

Raft

26

128

12

4.92

0.46

Rustic

84

1123

41

13.36

0.48

Total

129

1750

99

13.56

0.77

 

Table 3: Year 2007 Boat Landing

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

40

995

137

24.87

3.42

Raft

53

262

20

4.94

0.37

Rustic

173

2627

191

15.18

1.10

Total

266

3884

348

14.60

1.31

 

Table 4: Successful Boat Landings per Areas

Year

Area 1

Area 2

Area 3

Area 4

Total Landings

Year 2005

46

N/A

N/A

N/A

46

Year 2006

53

41

35

N/A

129

Year 2007

26

150

55

35

266

 

 

Enc2005Land.jpg

Figure 2: Year 2005: Landings occur closest between Isla Del Sueño and the United States.

 

 

Boat1C.jpg

Figure 3: Year 2006 Boat Landings

 

 

 

Boat1D.jpg

Figure 4: Year 2007 Boat Landings

 

 

Boat-2  Characterize the geographical patterns of interdiction over the three years

Short Answer:

In the year 2005, the majority of Interdictions occur in north-south axis (shortest distance) between Isla Del Sueño and the United States. In the year 2006, interdictions have similar locations as in the year 2005 but also further along the west and east gulf coasts (Florida) of the United States. In the year 2007, more interdictions surround the entire island and further along the west gulf / Florida coast of the United States.

 

Enc2005Interd.jpg

Year 2005 Boat Interdictions

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

16

426

17

26.62

1.06

Raft

21

117

15

5.57

0.71

Rustic

69

1004

57

14.45

0.82

Total

106

1547

89

14.59

0.84

 

Enc2006Interd.jpg

Year 2006 Boat Interdictions

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

26

668

32

25.69

1.23

Raft

34

169

15

4.97

0.44

Rustic

110

1608

91

14.61

0.82

Total

170

2445

138

14.38

0.81

 

Enc2007Interd.jpg

Year 2007 Boat Interdictions

Boat Type

Sum

Passenger

Deaths

Passengers / Trip

Deaths / Trip

Go Fast

30

706

67

23.53

2.23

Raft

40

195

9

4.88

0.22

Rustic

130

1992

141

15.32

1.08

Total

200

2893

217

14.46

1.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Boat- 3 What is the successful landing rate over the time period?

Short Answer:

Successful landing rate is 441 out of 917 records (48.01%) over the three years.

The rustic boat type is the most common form of transportation over the three years (287 of 441-65%), followed by raft (88 of 441-20%) and go-fast (66 of 441-15%). Rustic boats took 4141 out of 6212 passengers that landed over the three years (66.66%), raft boats took 431 people (6.94%) and go-fast took 1640 people (26.40%).

 

Other points of interest, hints for the grand challenge.

Frequency boats leave per month

 

Month

2005

2006

2007

1

Jan

4

6

2

2

Feb

8

6

10

3

Mar

12

18

32

4

Apr

19

30

54

5

May

19

34

54

6

Jun

19

59

87

7

Jul

18

53

80

8

Aug

16

45

58

9

Sep

7

29

45

10

Oct

12

12

28

11

Nov

12

3

6

12

Dec

6

4

10

Total

917

152

299

466

 

 

Are there any characters of interest in this data?

 

When comparing names over the three years, the following people have landed more than once in the United States: Lucila Grijalva, Reyes Mata, Frascuelo Alvarado, Pura Lira, Salvadora Arreola.